Good Analysis about the victory over LTTE

Finally credit of the victory belongs to all Sri Lankans except the ones like Ranil, Mangala, Chandrika and their supporters who tried to betray the country at each and every opportunity. Sarath Fonseka deserves good share, but he became a victim. It is sad to see what is happening in the country now. Sri Lanka will not have second chance.

Due to the recent political upheaval in the land of Sri Lanka (SL), several people have come out and claimed the victory of the war. So we frequently hear/read the statements like “I am responsible for the victory over the LTTE”.

So I thought of compiling a list of critical events related to Sri Lanka which happened during the last 3 – 4 years and analysed to see what if we failed in any of these missions, what would have been the possible outcome scenario?

1 Mavil-Aru conflict 2006

This was the beginning of the war with LTTE and at that time General Fonseka was in the hospital after the suicide attack.

Mavil Aru was a bloody confrontation. LTTE closed the sluice gates of the Mavil Aru to block the supply of water to about 30,000 acres of ripe paddy affecting about 60,000 farmers. Started as a humanitarian operation, the Govt needed to restore the water supply from Mavil Aru to the innocent farmers.

On August 8, 2006 when the LTTE announced it was restoring the water supply, everyone expected the SL govt to call off the operation and come to a settlement. If it was Ranil or Chandrika at the helm, it would have been the end of the story. Even the LTTE expected the same from Mahinda, but the Govt went ahead with the operation “Watershed” until it gained the full control of the sluice gates controlling the water flow.

During the operation “Watershed” and immediately after, there was pressure from the International agencies and diplomatic missions to stop the operation and come to a ceasefire. Even the ex US president Bill Clinton intervened at one stage. In this instance President and the Govt selected the Military approach over the political solution to resolve the issue and which was never expected by the LTTE. The most important aspect of this operation was to re-establish the credibility of the security forces and totally sideline the SLMM (Monitoring mission).

If the operation had failed – what would have been the outcome? LTTE would have taken the total control of the whole eastern province including Trincomalee. – Mahinda’s head would have been on the chopping block.

2 SL Budget 2007

You may remember the tense situation that prevailed just before the voting for the SL Budget 2007. Mangala Samaraweera expected several MP’s to cross over from the Government side to the opposition; even the JVP expected the same. Wimal Weerawansa and his supporters saved the government on that occasion. When the defectors knew that Govt will not lose, their whole operation was deflated. Even the current JVP did not vote against the govt and abstained from the vote. Poor Anura Bandarnayake did not have a clue of the situation and got seated with the opposition.

If the Govt lost the budget on that day, would you like to imagine the situation of the country now? Most probably Prabhakaran & LTTE would have captured part of the country by now.

3 Destruction of large LTTE ships in 2007

In 2007, SL Navy destroyed the several large LTTE ships which were carrying arms and ammunition, in the high seas. It dealt a severe blow to the LTTE’s international arms shipment network and drastically reduced its fire power. This was a major turning point of the war. This was the first time our small Navy went out of our water and completed a major operation successfully.

What would have happened if that operation failed? Who would get the blame? .Of course President, Defense Secretary and Navy Commander would be the prime targets for the blame & ridicule. The opposition along with LTTE would have started a campaign and toppled the Government. Most probably, Prabhakaran would be running his Eelam by now. General Fonseka was not in the scene at all.

4 UN Security Council in 2009

Even though the physical war was going on within SL, there was another battle that continued on outside SL. Most of the Western nations (US, UK, France, Norway, Sweden, etc) were using all their diplomatic fronts to stop the war and come to a political settlement. Several times LTTE Diaspora with the help of the West tried to include SL conflict into the Security Council agenda, but failed because of China, Russia & Vietnam. Here again credit lies with the Rajapaksa regime for backing the correct horse. Right from the beginning, Mahinda and the Govt had a very good relationship with China, Russia & India and that paved the way for their support.

If the LTTE Diaspora & West won at the UN Security Council, most probably UN would have sent a Peace Keeping Force and that would have been the birth of Eelam.

5 Bloody war in 2008 & 2009

By 2007, SL Security Forces have taken the total control of the Eastern province and started to dismantle LTTE from the north. According to the media reports, General Fonseka was in total control of this operation and he appointed commanders like Major General Jagath Dias and Brigadier Shavendra Silva, etc to lead the army from several fronts.

As we all know, they succeeded in their operations in spite of the stiff resistance from LTTE. Even though LTTE was weak at this time because of lack of supplies, credit should go to General Fonseka for appointing the right people at the right time and for the operational tactics. But recent report says that General was not in the country when the war was won. Most probably he was not needed during that phase of the war. Our Security forces without the General, Diplomats, Administrators and Politicians completed the job in style with the public support.

During this phase LTTE had the indirect support of the NGO & INGO as well as the SL opposition (UNP, Mangala Samaraweera, Mano Ganeshan, etc). Finally SLSF won the war.

What if – the SLSF forces lost this war, what would be the situation now? Whose head would go to the chopping block first? Of course, as Commander and Chief, Mahinda’s head would go first followed by Gotabhaya, General Fonseka, etc and not the other way around. This is where the “Responsibility & Accountability comes into the picture”.

6 War at the UN Human rights in 2009

While the physical war was happening in north of SL, two other wars were going on in UN Human rights council and in Colombo.

When the west failed in UN Security Council, they tried again in UN human rights council where there are no veto powers to anyone.

Fortunately, SL had people like Dayan Jayatilake, Rajiva Wijesinghe and Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe to stand up in this council and counteract their arguments and brought new resolutions to safeguard the independence and the human rights of Sri Lanka. This victory is as equal as the military victory in the north of Sri Lanka.

If SL lost this battle at the UN Human Rights Council, UN would have sent a Peace Keeping Force to SL and that would have been the end of war and thus created the birth of Eelam. Mahinda Rajapaksa, Mahinda Samarasinghe, etc would be blamed for the failure.

7 Battle in Colombo. In 2009

As far as I am concerned, this is the most satisfying victory of the whole war. During the near end of the war, the West and LTTE Diaspora tried their last trump card by sending British Foreign Minister and French Foreign Minister to SL, to give a life line to the LTTE and to rescue Prabakaran and LTTE leaders. Swedish Foreign Minister was not given the visa to join British and French. It was a very tensed situation.

This was the first time in history (after Keppetipola ) that a SL politician stood up to our previous colonial masters and asked them “Please do not interfere with our internal affairs”. It was the first time foreign ministers of two powerful countries came together to Sri Lanka and left empty handed.

What if – SL govt gave in at that moment? Prabhakaran and the LTTE would have survived and the fight would have continued for few more generations. Ranil, Mangala & Chandrika would have taken the upper hand in local politics and SL would go back to colonial days. Mahinda and the current govt would have lost the power.

8 Capture of KP & War Crimes

If one thinks that the war with LTTE is over, they are sadly mistaken. LTTE Diaspora with plenty of money and resources will keep on obstructing/ harassing Sri Lanka in every possible sphere. Fortunately we have capable people like Defense Secretary Gotabhaya who understood what was happening outside the Sri Lankan borders, initiated and coordinated the action to arrest the current leader of LTTE KP and brought him to SL which took everybody by surprise. From the LTTE war perspective, this is a remarkable achievement. Only the Israelis used this type of operation before. Please note that SL does not have resources like Israel.

The West and LTTE Diaspora know the abilities of our defense establishment and that is why they are all out to stop this type of operations and try to accuse Defense Secretary and the other commanders (except the General who was in China during the final phase of the war) on war crimes.

I have a feeling that if General wins the election with the help of West, Ranil, Chandrika, etc, he will have to obey his masters and he might handover our key defense personnel to trial at the International Court of Justice on “war crimes”. You may also remember what happened to the personnel who used to work for the Millennium City project.

If that happens, it will be a very very sad day for Sri Lanka, we may not only lose whatever we have gained during the last four years, but also SL will go back at least 60 years – back to Colonial era.

9 Conclusions

From the above, one could easily see who was taking the biggest risk in conducting the above war and due credit should go to the correct deserving persons and not to anyone who is just claiming it.

Recently, I read another report saying that President and Defense Secretary prevented General Fonseka in speaking to the press. No wonder anyone allowing General to speak with the following experiences.

At the height of the war, when the Govt and expatriates were trying their best to gather support from everyone, the Army Commander makes utterances such as “Sri Lanka belongs to Sinhalese”. This statement alone gave a lot of ammunition to the LTTE and to its Diaspora. The expatriates who loved the country had a very difficult time in encountering the above statement and defending the General. I am sure it must have been the same for the SL government.

Dear General – a politically correct statement is “Sri Lanka belongs to Sri Lankans (Sinhalese, Tamil, Muslims, etc)” and not just Sinhalese.

When we needed the support of India, the General makes another blunder by uttering “Tamil Nadu politicians are jokers”. These are politically incorrect statements. I am sure someone in the government would have apologized to India with regards to the above statement.

10 Now , Who is the winner

What if – Major General Jagath Dias (57 Division) and Brigadier Shavendra Silva (58 Division) – the most competent commanders of the army, claim that they are responsible for the victory of the war because they went to the battle front and took the risks more than anyone else?

Then the General Fonseka will say – No, I gave the opportunity and command to the commanders and therefore I am totally responsible for the victory.

Then Gotabhaya might say – No, I took the risk and appointed the General as the Army Commander and therefore he too should get the credit of the victory.

Then President Mahinda might say – No, I appointed Gotabhaya as the Defense Secretary and therefore I should get the credit of the victory.

Then the people in SL (SLFP, JVP, JHU, etc) will say we appointed Mahinda as the President and the credit and the victory should come to us.

Finally credit of the victory belongs to all Sri Lankans except the ones like Ranil, Mangala, Chandrika and their supporters who tried to betray the country at each and every opportunity.

by Lucky (Sydney)

People’s President: You should watch this before the presidential vote, PRESIDENT’S MEDIA INTERVIEW – 17.01.10

Please click on the following link for the full interview:

http://www.col3negoriginal.com/watch.php?id=3316

Mahinda will win- Anura Accepts

Anura your Mouth lies but tongue doesn’t lie

Posted by Chinthaka

Corruption – The Untold Story

Corruption has become a hot topic once again. Unfortunately corruption is discussed only during election time. Winners of elections burry it for good until their opponents resurrect it at the next election. So the cycle continues. Lack of credible direct evidence of corruption is the main difficulty in taking action against it. However empirical evidence is available for all to see about the degree of relative corruption. Relative corruption is the level of corruption of one government compared to another government.

In 1994 Chandrika alleged massive corruption of the UNP government. It worked well for her but did the country do any better? Actually she was blaming the Wijetunga administration of faults of his predecessors! While at no place she mentioned Wijetunga’s corruption or his government’s corruption, she was complaining about Jayawardena and Premadasa administrations’ corruption. However people voted out the not so corrupt Wijetunga government and elected to office a government which is considered far worse. Turning back at the events of the last two decades, it is crystal clear that the 1993-94 Wijetunga government was less corrupt that its replacement of 1994-2001.

Corruption indicators

When there is large scale corruption it becomes evident through practical indicators. High corruption means less welfare schemes, inability to meet state financial commitments, reckless borrowing, depleting foreign reserves, selling government owned entities, economic hopelessness, reducing investor confidence, closure of universities for long periods, cuts in public spending and staff and no salary increases for the public sector.

If one compares these practical and real indicators of previous governments and the Rajapaksha government, a strange conclusion emerges. It is strange because it is not what you hear on political stages and politicised media.

Reduction or increase in welfare schemes?

Although it is not considered sound economic practice, the Rajapaksha government increased the welfare spending. The fertilizer subsidy was extended to Vanni, displacement subsidies from Mavil Aru to Menik farm, drought and flood subsidies, Samurdhi subsidy and a number of other subsidies were granted.. Not a single subsidy was cut. The increase in welfare schemes took place despite allocating double than before for defence.

Reckless borrowing, what happened to foreign reserves?

The Rajapaksha government never went for reckless borrowing. Government’s lack of desperation in borrowing was displayed to the IMF and other donors. This was despite the war. From 2001 to 2003, within just two and a half years, Sri Lanka’s external debt rose from US$ 8.3 billion to US$10.6 billion even without a war! However, from 2005 to 2009 for four years Sri Lanka’s external debt only rose from US$10.85 to US$13.50 billion. Whether the annual increase is considered or the percentage increase is considered, the Rajapaksha administration has done very well.

The composition of the loan portfolio is also important. By 2005 about 60% of the state debt portfolio was external (foreign) debt. This reduced to close to 45% by 2009. Lesser foreign debt means less national indebtedness as it lowers the impact on the exchange rate and external reserves. This is a remarkable achievement despite the war.

External reserves reached an all time high in 2009.

Can both these happen at the same time if there was more corruption than before? Very unlikely.

Exchange regulations were eased as never before since the country has a stable level of foreign reserves and managed external debt with the hope of a gigantic economic expansion.

In the last couple of years the world went into recession. Contrary to dire predictions, Sri Lank overcame this challenge with flying colours.

Selling government owned entities

Selling government owned entities has always been a popular escape. When in a situation of unmanageable budget deficit, selling off ‘family silver’ has been a quick fix. However, people suffer as a result. How many government owned entities were sold by the Rajapaksha government? Almost none. All previous governments after 1977 sold off public owned enterprises to cover the budget deficit. Ceylon Oxygen, Ceylon Cold Stores, Textile Corporation, Kelani Valley Plantations, Kotagala Plantations, Maskeliya Plantations, Namunukula Plantations, Sri Lanka Telecom, Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation, National Insurance Corporation, Distilleries Corporation, Sri Lankan Airlines (formerly Air Lanka), Ceylon Transport Board, Lanka Gas (sold to Shell gas), CINTEC, the lucrative distribution arm of the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (sold to Indian Oil Company), etc.

Many desperate attempts were made to sell Bank of Ceylon, Peoples’ Bank, National Savings Bank, State Investment and Mortgage Bank, Ceylon Electricity Board, Sri Lanka Railways, Sri Lanka Post, etc.

The Rajapaksha administration didn’t do this. Where did the government find the money to manage a US$1.5 billion war, welfare schemes while not earning a quick buck by selling off state owned entities? If the Rajapaksha administration was more corrupt or as corrupt as other administrations, this should not be the trend.

Further, previously sold out entities including Sri Lankan Airlines were brought back under peoples’ ownership.

Cuts in public spending, employment and salaries

On top of all that, the Rajapaksha administration increased the number of persons employed in the state sector. While modern economists would not like it, the government managed the increase very well. Economists note with concern that Sri Lanka has the highest state sector employment as a percentage of the GDP. Despite that salary increases were awarded as never before.

Employing unemployed graduates in very large numbers was also seen during this time. Over the years most of them have been equipped with skills to meaningfully contribute to the economy.

Where is the money? Of course the government increased taxes but total taxes as a percentage of the GDP steadily fell. It is obviously not possible to sustain such a massive state sector if corruption was higher than previous governments.

Economic hopelessness?

There were times when economic hopelessness reached astronomical proportions. In 1971, 1980, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1994, 2001 and 2004 were examples of utter hopelessness in the economic front. Is there economic hopelessness today as it was then? No. Although the cost of living has skyrocketed, people’s income has also increased. But above all there is much anticipation of future economic prospects.

All this is because there is wide anticipation that the economy will do well despite the loss of GSP+, 26 years of war, international pressure and other adversities.

A simple question would clarify the matter. Do you have better prospects today than there were following the tsunami (2005)? The answer is obvious.

Universities, education and healthcare

University disruptions have reduced compared to the past and the government is spending a huge amount of money on primary, secondary and tertiary education. University admissions have steadily increased. Percentage of schooling children has increased over the years. Teaching in the English medium meaningfully started and is expanding. Once this was thought impossible. The healthcare system was also protected and in fact improved. Improvement in the healthcare system helped it cope up with the very large number of war casualties from 2006-09.

If corruption had not reduced compared to the past, none of this would have been possible. When governments were in dire financial state, their attention is first directed towards these vulnerable sectors.

Investor confidence

Investor confidence has increased as never before. The Colombo Stock Exchange became the world’s best stock exchange. It shows the tremendous increase in investor confidence. If the present administration was as corrupt as the previous ones, this cannot happen. Many third world countries despite more liberal economic policies were defeated by the Colombo Stock Exchange in the past few years.

Very large scale investment activities take place from the South to the North.. Potential of these investments is even higher.

Bridges, flyovers, road construction, power plants and ports

Infrastructure development in this sector is unprecedented. A very large number of key bridges have come up linking communities and industries. New bridges have opened up new markets, production sources and reduced transportation cost and time. Economic development in the Eastern Province alone was unthinkable a few years before..

Traffic congestion around the City has been a major wastage factor causing wastage in time, fuel, money, property and even lives. Flyovers that came up during the past few years have eased congestion. Real benefits will be seen in time to come. Compared to the previous work of similar nature especially the Baseline Road Project, the present government has been very efficient..

Work on key roads has been stalled for over 25 years until the Rajapaksha government got down to it. Now these artery roads are being built at a vigorous speed. Economic contribution that comes with it would be significant.

Power plants are coming up around the country. Although some of these were on the drawing board for decades, actual work started only recently. There was a time not so long ago when governments think of power plants when CEB is forced to cut electricity.

Finally, the war

A staggering US$1.5 billion was made available for defence. Compared to previous allocations, it has almost doubled. Other ancillary defence related expenditure also increased. Government refused to cut corners when it comes to requirements. Although the budget was passed with extreme difficulty, spending was better managed.

A massive defence allocation along with all the other large spending endeavours was possible thanks to a reduction in relative corruption.

Otherwise not only the war effort would have stalled but also the state sector would have collapsed, state enterprises would have been sold out and welfare spend would have been cut.

During election time these facts are not given enough prominence as the craze for power blinds a section of the population. However, the society must recognize these before it is too late to correct. Politicians are willing to wait another six years for power but people cannot wait for development any longer. They have already waited for 26 long years.

Dilrook Kannangara

Examples of Heroes, Villains, Traitors, Enemies, Patriots, Friends & Jokers

Heroes

Villains

Taritors

Enemies

Patriots

Friends

Jokers

Posted by: Chinthaka

All the prominent Artists & Sportsmen support President

Rajapakse set for an easy win.

New Delhi, Jan. 15: Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa seems set for an easy victory over his rival and former Army Chief Sarath Fonseka in the January 26 presidential poll, according to an opinion survey. Viplav Communications Pvt. Ltd, which has earlier been strategic advisers to numerous Indian politicians and conducted election surveys in India, conducted the survey in Sri Lanka. The findings of the survey were made available to IANS here. The poll shows Mr Rajapakse leading in all provinces other than the Tamil-dominated north and multi-racial east and enjoying a 12 per cent lead over his opponent in the island as a whole.

According to the survey, Mr Rajapakse holds a dominant lead among the majority Sinhalese population who account for 74 per cent of Sri Lanka's population. He also enjoys a narrow lead among the Muslim voters. However, he trails behind Mr Fonseka among the Tamils of the north and east, the war zone where the military crushed the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in May 2009 leaving thousands dead.

Among the Tamils of Indian origin living in the tea plantation areas, Mr Rajapakse enjoys majority support. The sample size for the January 6-13 survey was 10,225. According to it, people have graded the President very high on the skills and experience needed to run the next government. Mr Fonseka's inexperience as a political administrator coupled with a pro-Rajapakse environment in the country was the clinching factor, the survey said. The President is expected to do very well in Sinhalese-dominated North Central, Southern and Sabargamuwa provinces.

Mr Fonseka has a good support base in eastern and northern provinces. He also has the support of Tamils in Colombo. Mr Rajapakse has a slight edge over Mr Fonseka among Muslim voters. Muslims, who also speak Tamil in many areas, are the second largest minority in Sri Lanka after the Tamils, who are dominantly Hindus. According to the survey, Sinhalese Christians - most Sinhalese are Buddhists - support mostly the President compared to Tamil Christians.

-IANS

Link to 'The Asian Age' Online Article